American Airlines cuts 2026 outlook as fuel costs overwhelm record revenue

American Airlines lowered its 2026 earnings forecast on Oct. 22, projecting a full-year adjusted loss as sharply higher fuel costs outweighed record third-quarter revenue. The carrier also plans to slow capacity growth in 2027, signaling a more cautious approach to expansion while operating expenses remain elevated.

The airline now expects an adjusted annual loss of $1 to $1.60 per share. That replaces its July forecast ranging from a loss of 65 cents to a profit of 65 cents per share, removing the possibility of a profitable year on that measure from its guidance.

American became the fourth major U.S. carrier to cut its 2026 forecast this month because of the fuel-price spike, according to CNBC. The succession of revisions shows that the pressure extends beyond one airline, with stronger ticket revenue proving insufficient to protect earnings across the industry.

Third-quarter revenue reached $16.34 billion, exceeding the $16.22 billion expected by analysts surveyed by LSEG, CNBC reported. American posted an adjusted loss of 28 cents per share, better than the anticipated 35-cent loss, but that narrower-than-expected quarterly shortfall did not prevent a downgrade to its annual outlook.

Fuel was the central drag on the results. American said its quarterly fuel expense increased by $1.9 billion, or 67.5%, from a year earlier, illustrating the scale of the additional spending its commercial performance had to absorb before higher sales could translate into profit.

The results highlight the distinction between revenue growth and financial recovery. Record sales can demonstrate the strength of an airline's business without establishing that its earnings are improving, particularly when a major operating expense rises sharply. American's revised forecast makes that gap the central issue heading into the final quarter.

Chief Executive Robert Isom said premium products led the airline's record third-quarter revenue performance and that the company expected another quarter of record revenue growth to finish the year. His assessment presented an airline making progress commercially while still struggling to restore profitability under historically high fuel prices.

American expects fourth-quarter revenue to rise between 19.5% and 22.5% from a year earlier, according to its earnings release. Nevertheless, it forecasts an adjusted loss of 50 cents to $1.10 per share for the period, indicating that substantial sales growth is still not expected to produce positive adjusted earnings.

The next test is whether continued revenue gains can narrow the gap with operating costs. American's decision to slow network growth in 2027 reflects that challenge, rather than a withdrawal of its revenue expectations. For now, its outlook points to another loss-making quarter before the airline enters a more restrained phase of expansion.