Calacanis Bitcoin Forecast Draws $3 Million in Wager Offers

Technology investor and All-In podcast co-host Jason Calacanis has drawn three $1 million wager offers after predicting that bitcoin would never establish another record high, according to Bitcoin.com News. His response to the first challenge was to suggest a 12-month contest instead of the proposed decade-long commitment.

Bitcoin investor Fred Krueger initiated the challenge with a proposal running through Oct. 28, 2036. His terms would give bitcoin until that date to exceed $126,210.50, the October 2025 peak identified in the report and used as the wager’s benchmark.

Krueger proposed that both participants deposit $1 million into independent escrow, with a mutually acceptable custodian holding the funds. An agreed price oracle would determine whether bitcoin had crossed the threshold, providing a defined mechanism for judging the outcome rather than leaving settlement to competing interpretations.

Under those terms, a new record before the deadline would give Krueger the win and trigger immediate settlement. If bitcoin failed to surpass the benchmark during the decade, Calacanis would win instead. The proposed arrangement therefore involved $2 million in combined deposits for that individual contest.

Calacanis countered by proposing a wager covering the next 12 months, according to the report. That would test a substantially narrower claim: whether bitcoin could set a record within a year, rather than whether it would ever do so again. The report did not establish that the two had agreed on revised terms.

Bitcoin supporter Grant Cardone then offered a separate $1 million challenge with a two-year horizon. His proposal would count bitcoin reaching or exceeding $126,210.50 by Oct. 28, 2028, as a win, with settlement occurring when the price target was reached or when the deadline expired.

Cardone said he was willing either to trust Calacanis to pay or to have both sides place their money with an independent third party. Hollywood producer and bitcoin educator Terence Michael subsequently offered another $1 million under Cardone’s terms, bringing the challengers’ combined offers to $3 million.

The distinction between offers and accepted wagers is important: the reported total does not establish that money has been deposited or that Calacanis has assumed those obligations. The proposals also differ in duration and wording, with Krueger requiring bitcoin to exceed the benchmark and Cardone allowing it to reach or exceed that level.

At the report’s stated cutoff of 2:55 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 28, 2026, Calacanis had not responded to Cardone’s or Michael’s offers. What happens next depends on whether the participants agree on a deadline, price measurement and payment arrangements. Until then, the exchange remains a public disagreement over bitcoin’s prospects rather than a finalized financial contest.