Bitcoin’s older coins turn quieter, raising early bull-market hopes

Bitcoin’s older coins are showing signs of reduced activity, a shift that onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant interprets as an early indication of a potential bull market, according to Cointelegraph. The analysis focuses on a small decline in the share of realized capitalization associated with coins unmoved for at least 18 months.

That cohort’s share slipped from 26.98% to 26.59% after reaching a peak on Sept. 16, the report said. CryptoQuant described the reversal as modest but potentially significant because similar changes in older holders’ behavior have accompanied the beginning of previous rallies. Its interpretation is that the market may be entering a more constructive phase rather than already displaying a fully developed bullish signal.

Realized capitalization values Bitcoin using the price at which each coin last moved on the blockchain, rather than applying the latest market price to the entire supply. Breaking that measure into age bands gives analysts another way to examine the composition of holdings. The resulting percentages describe shares of realized value, not simply the percentage of all Bitcoin belonging to a particular group.

The distinction matters when assessing the headline signal. A decline in an age band’s share is a relative change within that measure, and should not automatically be read as an equivalent decline in the number of coins held. The bullish conclusion depends on how the indicator behaves over time and how analysts interpret its relationship with earlier market cycles.

Separate figures cited in the report point to slower movement among even older coins. Bitcoin unmoved for five years or longer has been moving at an average pace of roughly 34,000 BTC a month in 2026, compared with about 67,000 BTC in 2024, according to Galaxy Digital. Those figures provide another perspective on the retreat in activity among longstanding holders.

Galaxy’s research frames the slowdown against a substantial earlier redistribution of old supply. Its report argues that the market experienced an unusually large rotation of longstanding holdings during the preceding period. That background helps explain why analysts are looking for evidence that distribution has eased, rather than treating dormancy as an isolated development.

Nevertheless, blockchain movement and outright selling are not interchangeable. A transfer can reflect a change in custody or another wallet operation, while inactivity alone does not establish why an owner is holding. These limits make the latest findings evidence for a market interpretation, rather than confirmation of either investor intentions or a future price outcome.

The next test is whether the small reversal becomes a sustained trend. CryptoQuant’s outlook remains constructive, but its early-cycle framing leaves the strength and timing of any rally unresolved. Continued restraint among older holders would support that reading; renewed activity would require analysts to reassess whether the apparent shift is durable.