Nissan cuts sales forecast again as China competition intensifies

Nissan cut its annual global vehicle sales forecast for the second time in months on November 11, as intensifying competition in China complicated its recovery. The Japanese automaker now expects sales of between 2.97 million and 3 million vehicles for the fiscal year ending March 2027, down from 3.15 million.

The reduction follows an earlier cut from 3.3 million vehicles, underscoring how quickly conditions have changed in the world's largest auto market. Nissan cited weaker demand, tougher competition and a faster-than-expected shift toward new energy vehicles as reasons for the latest downgrade.

Chief Executive Ivan Espinosa's response includes using Nissan's Chinese development operations to strengthen its offering elsewhere. According to CNBC's report, he outlined plans to expand exports of China-developed vehicles from two models to five, targeting 12 regional market clusters.

That approach gives China a dual role in Nissan's recovery: it remains a difficult sales market but also provides a base for products intended to compete internationally. The export strategy seeks to draw on local technology and lower costs rather than treating Chinese competition solely as a threat to domestic sales.

Despite the reduced volume forecast, Nissan maintained its full-year operating profit target of 200 billion yen. Keeping that target while lowering expected sales places greater importance on cost reductions, pricing and the mix of vehicles sold, rather than relying on volume growth alone.

The latest earnings showed an uneven recovery. Operating profit for the July-September quarter fell to 2.1 billion yen from 51.5 billion yen a year earlier, even as quarterly revenue increased 8.2%. Nissan attributed much of the operating profit decline to the absence of a benefit from lower U.S. emissions-related expenses recorded a year earlier.

Results across the broader first half were stronger than the quarterly comparison suggested. Nissan reported operating profit of 80 billion yen for the six months through September, reversing a year-earlier operating loss, and said its Re:Nissan recovery programme generated an additional 110 billion yen in cost savings during the period.

Regional differences remain central to the turnaround. Nissan raised its sales outlook for the United States and Japan, while describing China as its most significant challenge. The contrast shows why stronger performance in some markets has not been enough to prevent another reduction in the global sales forecast.

In China, Nissan said it is adjusting combustion-engine production and dealer inventories while accelerating its N-series new energy vehicle portfolio and expanding exports. Those measures address both its existing stock of vehicles and the need to respond more quickly to changing customer demand.

The next major milestone is a new business plan scheduled for February 2027. Until then, Nissan's outlook depends on further restructuring gains and stronger contributions from new products offsetting the pressure in China. The company cautioned that its forecasts remain subject to uncertainty and that actual results may differ.