UK aid spending forecast to fall £410m short of reduced target

The UK is on course to miss its reduced international aid spending target in 2027 by an estimated £410 million, according to calculations from the Center for Global Development. The forecast suggests planned spending will fall below the government's commitment to devote 0.3% of gross national income to official development assistance.

The estimate is a projection rather than a final spending total. It nevertheless raises a question for ministers: whether existing allocations are sufficient to deliver a commitment that already represents a substantial reduction in Britain's aid effort.

The government announced in February 2025 that it would lower aid spending from around 0.5% of national income to 0.3% in 2027. The House of Commons Library says the reduction was intended to finance increased defence and security expenditure, making the aid settlement part of a broader shift in spending priorities.

That decision followed an earlier reduction from 0.7% to 0.5% in 2021. The parliamentary briefing says aid spending is not expected to return to 0.7% during the current Parliament, meaning the latest forecast concerns delivery against the lower commitment rather than restoration of the previous level.

A target expressed as a share of national income is not a fixed cash allocation. The amount required to meet it changes with national income, so spending plans need to be assessed against the economic figures used to calculate the commitment. A projected gap does not establish the eventual outcome, but it identifies a potential mismatch before final expenditure is recorded.

The government's 2025 spending review described its aid settlement as delivering the equivalent of 0.3% of gross national income by 2027. It also explicitly linked the reduction in official development assistance to greater investment in security and defence. The CGD estimate puts the adequacy of that settlement under renewed scrutiny.

The stakes extend beyond the headline percentage because aid programmes are already adjusting to smaller budgets. According to the Commons Library, the government's plans prioritise multilateral spending, with larger reductions falling on bilateral programmes. Any additional shortfall would therefore arise against an existing contraction, rather than an otherwise unchanged funding outlook.

The government has acknowledged that its aid cuts pose risks to poverty reduction and equality objectives, the parliamentary briefing says. Its stated response is to concentrate resources in priority areas, including humanitarian assistance, global health, climate and nature, economic development, and women and girls. Those priorities describe how ministers intend to manage reduced resources, not whether the overall spending target will be met.

The immediate issue is whether subsequent funding decisions close the gap identified by CGD. Meeting the commitment will depend on both the national-income figures used and the aid expenditure ultimately recorded for 2027. Until those totals are available, the £410 million figure remains a warning about the current trajectory, not a confirmed final underspend.