US Ambassador Warns Canada Could Be Blamed if Republicans Lose Key Midterm Races

US Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra told a private gathering of business leaders this week that Canada could be blamed by President Donald Trump if Republicans lose key races in next week's midterm elections, according to an exclusive report by CTV News. The remarks were delivered at a lunch hosted at Hoekstra's official residence in Ottawa and were reported by journalists Marieke Walsh and Vassy Kapelos.

Hoekstra specifically cited swing contests in Maine and Michigan as the races to watch. Sources familiar with the meeting told CTV News that the ambassador warned attendees if those states fell to Democrats, it would likely become more difficult for Canada in the aftermath, as the president would not be happy and Canada could be assigned a share of the blame.

The US Embassy in Ottawa moved quickly to dispute that characterisation of the ambassador's words. A spokesperson said the reported comments were "grossly taken out of context from a broader discussion," though the embassy declined to elaborate on what that broader context was.

Beth Burke, CEO of the Canadian American Business Council, which co-organised the lunch, also pushed back. Burke noted the event was intended to be off the record and said Hoekstra had spoken "very positively" about the US-Canada relationship and his hopes for a trade deal, adding that the reported comments "don't reflect his overall message."

Hoekstra has been a polarising presence in Ottawa since his appointment. The ambassador has previously accused Canadian officials of attempting to interfere in the US midterm elections — allegations that former diplomats and Canadian officials have largely dismissed as unfounded, with one former diplomat describing the claims as "noise."

The midterms carry outsized stakes for the Senate map. Republicans must hold seats in competitive states including Michigan and Maine to maintain their majority, making the results pivotal to Trump's legislative agenda for the remainder of his term.

The closed-door meeting took place against the backdrop of a deeply strained bilateral relationship driven by Trump's imposition of sweeping tariffs on Canadian goods. The standoff has unsettled businesses and residents on both sides of the border, with trade talks grinding on without a clear resolution.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney signalled this week that Canada is not yet ready to conclude a deal with Trump. Sources within cabinet expressed scepticism that the US side could ultimately compromise on core demands, with some officials describing any near-term window as fleeting.

The suggestion that Canada might be scapegoated for a Republican electoral setback underscores the increasingly transactional nature of the current bilateral dynamic. Analysts and former officials have noted that the Trump administration has treated the relationship less as a long-standing alliance and more as a zero-sum negotiating exercise.

With the midterms days away, the direction of the relationship appears tied, at least in part, to how results are read in Washington. Whether Canada is drawn into any post-election blame narrative could shape the trajectory of trade talks and diplomatic relations well into 2027.